Microsoft is lobbying the Trump administration with the goal of preventing a yet-to-be-introduced ban: restricting the import of new models of optical transceivers made in China, also known as optical modules.
Microsoft and other technology companies and industry groups have practical reasons. Optical modules are key components that connect servers and switches in data centers, and are particularly used in AI clusters. Chinese manufacturers have a high share of this link. Once restrictions are imposed, it may directly cause shortages and slow down the construction of the United States' own AI data centers.
People familiar with the matter said that Microsoft and other companies met with officials from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the National Security Council in September to discuss supply chain concerns in person.
It is the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that is pushing for restrictions. The relevant rules are still being studied and the final version has not been announced. The reason given was security: new models of optical modules made in China could be used to steal data, plant malware or interfere with data center services. Sources said that the FCC is considering placing Chinese optical modules with a transmission rate of 3.2Tbps into the scope of restrictions.
3.2T is the next generation product. At present, the main force of AI clusters is 800G, 1.6T is being used in large quantities, and 3.2T is the next generation. Therefore, this restriction does not target the current stock, but the increase in the next two to three years.
What’s interesting about this matter is the misalignment of positions. In the past two years, U.S. technology companies have basically cooperated with the government on chip export controls because they restrict others from buying them. Optical modules, on the other hand, restrict your own purchases, and if you cannot buy them, your own capital expenditure plan will be damaged. Microsoft's investment in data centers this year is hundreds of billions of dollars. If any part gets stuck, the entire building will have to wait.
The performance and stock price of domestic optical module manufacturers in the past two years have been supported by the demand for AI in North America. Which generation of products the FCC ultimately draws the line on will directly determine the orders for these companies in the coming years.