Polymarket

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform. In simple terms, it allows users to use cryptocurrencies to “bet” on any possible event that may occur in the future world, thereby transforming collective judgment into real-time probability prices.

For all possible events, there are only two options here: “yes” or “no”. Anything can be predicted; for example, could the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 50 basis points in January 2026? 99% of people chose “no”.

From how many tweets Elon Musk posted within a week to who will win the European Cup, all these can be predicted here. Even matters like when the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia will take effect can be anticipated as well.

Main functions

The core functions of Polymarket revolve around “prediction” and “trading”:

• Event-driven predictive trading:For specific events (such as "Will the price of Bitcoin exceed $150,000 in 2025?"), users can make purchases accordingly.“Yes”(or)“No”The share that will not be taken.
• Price is equal to probability.The price of a share directly reflects the probability that the market believes such an event will occur. For example, if the price of “Yes” is $0.60, it means that the market estimates a 60% chance of this event happening. Consequently, the price of “NO” would be $0.40. The sum of these two prices always equals $1, and this amount remains constant as the probability changes.“Yes”和No”The price will also change.
• Create or participate in a "market":True/False or multiple-choice questions covering topics ranging from politics, finance and economics to sports, technology, and entertainment.

Finally

As a domestic user, my suggestion is that you should pay attention to the sources from which you obtain your information. This way, you will not only be able to learn about various upcoming events but also understand their likelihood of occurring. The accuracy of these predictions is often higher than that of many well-known influencers.